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  1. Biases in Preconstruction Estimates of Wind Plant Annual Energy Production

    Estimating the energy yield of a wind plant during the preconstruction phase is a historically difficult task, even with industry improvements in these estimations. We build on prior research comparing the realized energy production of wind plants and their estimated annual energy production P50 values (median energy production), using owner-provided energy production and losses. We produced similar results to prior studies but with a slightly increasing bias of overestimating median energy production (a bias between realized and estimated energy production of -7.4 % to -6.6 %, depending on the scenario, as opposed to -6.7 % to -5.5 % from earliermore » studies). In addition to assessing annual energy production P50 bias, we compared both the 1-year and the long-term annual energy production P90 and uncertainty energy yield assessment estimates to the observed long-term-corrected energy production. We found that neither the energy yield assessment uncertainty nor the P90 is conservative enough compared to the observed distribution of prediction errors, suggesting significant room for improvement in the energy yield assessment process.« less
  2. Defining Infrastructure Feasibility for Hub-Scale Offshore Atlantic Carbon Storage in the Northeastern United States

    In the Northeast U.S., deep rock formations along the Atlantic outer continental shelf may have the potential to sequester 150–1136 million metric tons of CO2. However, the design and infrastructure necessary to develop offshore carbon storage in this region is not well defined because there has been little oil and gas exploration and no commercial production. Consequently, an infrastructure feasibility design was completed for a hub-scale offshore CO2 storage system along the Northeast U.S. Atlantic. The design included development of a detailed, site-specific geological model for a location near the Great Stone Dome geological structure in the Baltimore Canyon Troughmore » off the coast of Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey. A field injection system topology design was completed to portray a design with eight wells in two clusters connected by central manifolds. Reservoir simulations were completed for the injection system that showed the hub may be able to inject 17 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2 per year for thirty years, but injection rates varied substantially across the eight wells. A CO2 pipeline design determined feasible routes from the east coast shoreline to the injection field. Finally, the CO2 injection system design included subsea injection trees, manifolds, and power umbilicals. This is the first study to define large-scale carbon storage design and infrastructure options for the offshore Atlantic, which can help to progress this region towards field characterization and early-mover deployment for future decarbonization in the region.« less
  3. Unified Modeling Architecture for Load Management in Extreme Heat: The New York City Case

    Integration of renewable resources to meet growing energy demand is becoming a global priority under decarbonization mandates. This study contributes to ongoing efforts on this key subject by assessing the feasibility of using coastal-urban renewable energy resources, namely, offshore wind and rooftop photovoltaic systems, to meet electricity demand of New York City during the intense recent heat wave period of June 2025. A unified modeling framework, based on the urbanized weather research and forecasting model, is used to simulate climate, renewable resources, and energy demand variables. Findings show significant energy load mismatch of approximately 1150 GWh over the month, betweenmore » the demand and the combined renewable generation outcome. Three storage integration scenarios are analyzed to mitigate the deficits, reducing said deficits by a minimum of approximately 9% over the duration of the month. This study provides a transferable modeling framework tool for evaluating renewable integration in dense urban environments that can be used by grid operators to support grid resilience during extreme heat events.« less
  4. Strengthening Resilience: Florida Resident Voices on Resource Needs During Power Outages

    Extreme weather events related to climate change, and an aging electricity infrastructure are disrupting reliable electricity services to a greater degree. Further, previous research has found that more socially vulnerable populations are more likely to live in areas with a higher probability of power outages. Here, this study examines the issues that people face during power outages and the resources that help individuals maintain resilience during power outages caused by extreme weather events in socially vulnerable communities. Using qualitative data from focus groups with 56 individuals in Central and North Florida, the research highlights lived experiences during outages and difficultiesmore » using and accessing resources during these conditions. Based on a qualitative review of the focus group discussions, this paper explores the solutions and support systems residents believe would improve their ability to cope. The findings offer insights to guide policy and strategic planning, with the goal of strengthening personal preparedness and response by focusing on the resources people consider most helpful for enduring frequent and severe outages.« less
  5. Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation for surface and hub-height wind climatology over North America

    Assessing the availability of key wind resources requires augmenting observations to support the implementation of wind energy infrastructure. However, observations are limited, necessitating the development of high-resolution, long-term gridded datasets. This study presents a robust, dynamically downscaled climatological dataset, offering 20 years of hourly wind data at a 4 km spatial resolution across North America, and evaluates its performance against observations, including meteorological towers and automated surface-observing system (ASOS) stations, as well as coarse-resolution reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5)). Results demonstrate that the downscaled high-resolution wind data outperform ERA5 in regionsmore » of complex terrain and coastal areas, with improved overlap coefficients for wind data distributions and reduced root mean square errors (RMSEs) for hub-height and near-surface diurnal wind patterns. The downscaled simulation also captures the synoptic drivers of seasonal wind direction patterns reasonably well, indicated by high wind rose similarity indices. This study also provides an analysis of interannual variability, utilizing the dataset's full 20-year period, and model uncertainty, generated by varying model initial conditions and physics parameterizations across 1-year ensemble members, which are key considerations for wind resource assessment in wind farm development.« less
  6. The levelized cost of exergy: a technoeconomic framework for energy system comparison

    While the levelized costs of electricity and heat have been quantified before, these two metrics cannot be directly compared, due to the different exergy content of heat and work. To address this, we develop a levelized cost of exergy (LCOEx) framework that enables direct comparisons between energy sources and processes. We find that moderate- and high-grade heat have an LCOEx that is comparable to electricity (5–10 ¢ per kWhex), while low-grade heat sources have much higher LCOEx values (>50 ¢ per kWhex). The LCOEx of a system's output is affected by (i) the LCOEx of the system input, (ii) themore » CAPEX of the system, and (iii) the exergetic efficiency of the system. We use our framework to identify which processes are already achieved with relatively high cost effectiveness (production of fuels, hydrogen, and ammonia) and which have room for improvement (dehumidification, food production).« less
  7. Compact Absorber Technology Leads to Significant Reduction in the Cost of Point Source CO2 Capture

    The size of columns in traditional absorption-based processes for CO2 capture contributes significantly to the overall capital cost. A demonstrated method to reduce the cost of point source CO2 capture, focusing on reducing the absorber height by increasing the liquid-to-gas reaction contact area and decreasing the CO2 diffusion resistance without increasing gas-side pressure drop is presented along with techno-economic analysis results. Bench-scale tests on the unique Compact Absorber showed overall CO2 mass transfer enhancement of varying degrees compared to a traditional packed column for similar process conditions, demonstrating that a 60+% reduction in size of a typical post-combustion absorber withmore » a packing height of 70-100 ft and total height of 150-180 ft can be achieved. The techno-economic analysis showed significant cost reductions when the Compact Absorber is combined with other transformative aspects of the University of Kentucky Institute for Decarbonization and Energy Advancement point source CO2 capture process compared to the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory pertinent reference case for pulverized coal plants with CO2 capture. Here, a levelized cost of electricity excluding CO2 transportation and storage of $$\$$95.6$/MWh was estimated, which is a 9% reduction, with a total capital cost contribution of $45/MWh, which is a 12% reduction. Additionally, a breakeven CO2 sales price also referred to as the cost of CO2 capture, of $36.70/tonne was estimated when the UK hindered primary amine solvent is used, which is a 20% reduction compared to the reference case.« less
  8. Decomposing sources of value for electricity and negative emissions technologies in net-zero power systems

    Deep decarbonization of the US power system would require rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources, which are projected to provide a substantial share of electricity generation at the time of net-zero emissions. However, the exact share of generation met by VRE and the roles of other technologies in supplying key electricity services—energy and firm capacity—remain uncertain. This study employs a detailed model of the US power sector to decompose the provision and value of electricity services, including negative emissions, by technology across a range of deep decarbonization scenarios. Results indicate that while technology deployment and the share ofmore » services provided by each technology vary significantly depending on future technological and market conditions, the value composition and future roles of individual technologies remain consistent. These findings offer guidance for research and development priorities and provide insights to inform electricity policy and planning.« less
  9. Ion-Exchange Membrane-Centric Durability Testing and Degradation Characterization for Industry-Relevant CO2 Reduction

    Electrochemical CO2 reduction is a promising conversion process for producing value-added fuels and chemicals from electricity and CO2 as a sustainable carbon feedstock to domestically produce fuels and chemicals from industrial waste. Having reached industrially viable performance metrics with small-scale CO2 electrolysis cells, the field must now increasingly focus on extending the device durability of large stacks to achieve equivalent metrics for 35,000+ hours to decrease maintenance and capital costs. Reported device lifetimes have increased in recent years, with the longest stability studies for CO, ethylene, and formic acid production being published in 2024–2025 with operation times of 4500, 1000,more » and 5200 h, respectively. Unfortunately, significant extension of the device durability is still required. Here, we provide an overview of ion-exchange membranes (IEMs) and provide insight into the variety of degradation mechanisms that must be overcome to enable the community to meet durability targets. In an effort to accelerate the extension of device lifetimes, we propose a general approach for characterizing CO2 electrolysis cell degradation before and after durability testing to better elucidate the mechanisms and failure modes of IEMs in zero-gap cells. Furthermore, we encourage the adoption of operando characterizations in tandem with accelerated stress and durability tests, postulating that their combined applications will be increasingly valuable. We hope that this perspective motivates future durability studies to evaluate degradation across the entire electrolysis cell.« less
  10. Global Progress Toward Renewable Electricity: Tracking the Role of Solar (Version 5)

    Photovoltaics (PV) represented ~70% of newly installed global electricity generating capacity for 2024, continuing a trend of increasing fractional contribution over each of the past 5 years. Year-to-year growth in both PV installations and PV-generated electricity continued at remarkable levels (~32% and ~28%, respectively), while grid scale battery storage again demonstrated triple digit fractional growth (113%). The contribution to electricity generation from combined low-carbon sources (hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar) exceeded a new threshold of 40%. Following its initial publication in 2021, this annual article collects information from multiple sources and presents it systematically as a reference for IEEE Journalmore » of Photovoltaics readers.« less
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